1. “Past due invoices” = VOLUNTARY churn. SGE members deliberately deny the charge (their bank / credit-card app) or ignore the dunning emails as their way of quitting. Count it WITH money/affordability churn — never as “involuntary” or a dunning fix.
2. The 8-week orientation started 6 May 2026. Every cohort before that date had NO orientation (= the baseline). The May 6+ cohort is too young to judge retention until ~Aug–Sep 2026 (median time-to-cancel ≈ 10 weeks; 60% of churn by week 12). Only ever compare cohorts at matched age.
📂 Upload Latest Subscriber Data
Drop your accounts CSV here or click to browse
📉 Cohort Churn Tracker (optional)
2025 launch history is built in — just upload your latest cancellations CSV (the current-year export) after the accounts file. You can still select multiple files; anything already covered by the built-in 2025 data or duplicated is skipped automatically.
⚡ Live Data from Outseta (no CSV needed)
Pull subscriber data straight from Outseta through your secure Worker. The CSV upload above still works as a fallback.
Counts every login (~14k events, ~1–2 min) to reveal frequency — the true sticky core vs the one-and-done mirage. Pull live data first.
Counts each paying subscriber's email opens (~2,400 lookups, ~2–4 min). Run the login scan too for the cross-channel view. Partial until your CNAME fix.
📺 Content Engagement (live from Vimeo)
What members actually watch — the format verdict, the episode-length sweet spot, what's gaining, and what needs fixing. Uses the saved Worker URL + shared secret from the live-data panel above.
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👋 Welcome to Your Dashboard
Upload your latest accounts CSV from Outseta to see:
✅ Current baseline (monthly) & new (yearly) subscribers
✅ Adjustable Forecasting Revenue projections
✅ Breakdown by Full Access vs Founders Circle
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Churn Impact
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Cash dropping off / month
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real cash you won't collect next month — recurring
To break even
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new monthly subs/mo at current FC mix
12-month cash loss
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total cash never collected if no replacement
This is real cash, not an MRR average. Your baseline is the literal sum of what every active monthly subscriber pays you each month — so when 4.6% of them cancel, that exact dollar amount stops hitting your account. Yearly subs aren't in this number: they paid upfront at signup, and that cash already arrived — their contribution shows separately on the "yearly income" line and is unaffected by this churn rate. To plug the hole you need new monthly subs specifically; a new yearly sub gives you upfront cash but doesn't refill your monthly baseline the same way.
Total Active Subscribers
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Monthly Baseline
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Subs to Maintain
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Tread-water floor: new subs/mo to offset churn
Current Month New Subs
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New Yearly Income (This Month)
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Month Projection
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🔓 Login Engagement (live pull only)
How recently your paying accounts have logged in — your stickiness signal, crossed with monthly baseline $ so you can see revenue at risk.
🔬 Login Deep-Dive (frequency — the real stickiness)
Recency tells you when someone last logged in — it can't tell a daily user from a one-time visitor. This counts how often each paying account actually logs in, so the true core separates from the mirage.
📩 Email Open Engagement (paying subscribers)
Are paying subscribers actually reading what they pay for? Opens are a key engagement signal alongside logins — the cross-channel view shows which channel each subscriber actually uses.
🔀 Cross-Channel Engagement (logins × opens)
Both scans combined — who's engaged somewhere vs the Ghosts who pay you and engage nowhere. Run both deep scans to populate this.
Monthly Progress
-Target: 275 baseline
0%
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💰 Baseline Breakdown (Monthly Subscribers)
Tier
Count
Rate
Monthly Revenue
📅 New Yearly Subscribers
Tier
Count
Avg Rate
Total Income
📅 This Month
Current state vs. projected end-of-month based on 275 subs/month growth rate
💡 Take-Home Calculation
Revenue − Outseta subscription − Outseta processing fee − Stripe (2.9% + $0.30/tx) × FX rate (USD to GBP). Toggle plan in Fee Tracker below.
📅 Growth Projections
Based on conservative 275 subs/month growth rate from current state
or/month
% monthly
Default: —%
%
Default: —%
%
Default: —%
%
Default: 7.6% monthly-sub churn (111 monthly cancels/mo ÷ 1,460 monthly base, Mar–May). Note: Outseta's blended figure (~4%) divides by ALL accounts incl. yearly — this monthly-only rate is the correct one for baseline decay.
Default: 0.74 ($1 = £0.74)
📉 Cohort Churn Tracker
Each row is a join-month cohort. Cells show the % of that cohort who had cancelled by week 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 of their own tenure — so younger cohorts are compared fairly against older ones at the same age. Greyed cells mean the cohort hasn't lived long enough to measure yet (no false signal from incomplete data). Watch for post-orientation cohorts showing lower early-churn % than pre-orientation.
📊 Historical Growth (Aug 2025 - Present)
Month
New Subs
Baseline Growth
Baseline Total
New Income
% Change
📈 Overall Growth Metrics
📅 Recent Performance
Date
Subs
📊 Subscriber Mix Analysis
🏦 Platform Fee Tracker
Outseta + Stripe fees breakdown based on current revenue